What are your thoughts for on the run home?

Question

Here is my view on the run home, what are your thoughts?

1. Sydney
R18 Gold Coast (MS)- Easy Win
R19 Carlton (ES)- cant see them losing to Carlton
R20 Collingwood (ANZ)- Looking forward to this one, Tough to Call
R21 Bulldogs (ES)- Shouldn't have any trouble here
R22 Hawthorn (SCG)- given its a home game i reckon the Swans just.
R23 Geelong (SS) - Another tough game but Swans should be to good

So imo Sydney will win at least 3 of their last 6 with very winnable games against Collingwood and Hawthorn at Home and Geelong away

2. Adelaide
R18 Geelong (SS)- Should be a good game, im picking Adelaide just
R19 Essendon (AS)- Will be to strong at home for Essendon
R20 Fremantle (AS)- shouldn't have much trouble here
R21 Brisbane (G)- Brisbane are good at the Gabba so could be a danger game but they should win
R22 Melbourne (MCG)- Easy Win
R23 Gold Coast (AS)- Easy Win

Should win at least 4/6 two tough but winnable games against Geelong and Essendon

3. Hawthorn
R18 Essendon (ES)- Essendon play well at Etihad but Hawks will be to strong
R19 Geelong (MCG)- bit of a hoodoo team for them but i think they should get over the line
R20 Port Adelaide (AU)- should be an easy win
R21 Gold Coast (MCG)- easy win
R22 Sydney (SCG)- being at the SCG i think Swans here just
R23 West Coast (MCG)- depending on the ladder weather these two teams give it their all or not, Hawthorn will win i think

So I think the Hawks should most probably win at least 5/6. the Games against Geelong, Sydney and West Coast will give an indication of where they are at.

4. Collingwood
R18 GWS (SK)- Easy Win
R19 STK (MCG)-I think they will be to strong for the saints
R20 Sydney (ANZ)- could very well be a gf preview, Swans just
R21 North (ES)- North to put up a fight but Pies win
R22 West Coast (PS)- West Coast To good in Perth,
R23 Essendon (MCG)- close but Pies to win this one

I tip the Pies to win 4/6. Games against West Coast and Sydney away will be very important for top 4 placings

5. West Coast
R18 Brisbane (PS)- should beat them this time
R19 Fremantle (PS)- could be a very important game for both sides, Freo normally play well in derbies but Eagles should be to strong
R20 Geelong (PS)- Embley should be back in for West Coast and imo will be to strong for Geelong at home
R21 Port Adelaide (AS)- Could be a danger game, Port play alright at AS while west Coast havent traveled well lately. should still win but.
R22 Collingwood (PS)- its Possible Kennedy may be back but i wouldnt hold my breath. Eagles should still be to strong at home in an epic match
R23 Hawthorn (MCG)- Good game for Both teams before finals, weather they turn up to play will depend on the significance of the match. Hawthorn will get the points here.

So I may be bias but i think West Coast should win 5/6.the Mids need to lift if they are to go all the way. Kennedy will be a big boost
6. Essendon
R18 Hawthorn (ES)- Essendon play well at Etihad but i thinks the Hawks will be to strong
R19 Adelaide (AS)- Adelaide to strong
R20 North (ES)- should beat North
R21 Carlton (MCG) Could be a season defining game, Essendon just
R22 Richmond (MCG) Should be to strong here, Tigers will put up a fight
R23 Collingwood (MCG) Cant see them winning this one

I think they will win 3/6, they have the ability to will all of their remaining games if they can recapture early season form

7. Geelong
R18 Adelaide (SS) will be a very interesting game but Crows will win i think only just
R19 Hawthorn (MCG) Normally good against the Hawks but not this time imo
R20 West Coast (PS) West Coast to good in Perth
R21 St Kilda (ES) Should win
R22 Bulldogs (SS) Should win
R23 Sydney (SS)- home game but Swans to strong

tough run home for the Cats 4 games against top 5 sides, might struggle to make the 8 but could very well cause damage come September. i refuse to write them off

8.North Melbourne
R18 Melbourne (ES) Should win
R19 Bulldogs (ES) Should win
R20 Essendon (ES) Will Be tough, Bombers to strong
R21 Collingwood (ES) Collingwood to strong
R22 Fremantle (ES) important game for both sides, North to strong
R23 GWS (SK) easy win

i tip them to win 4/6 now that they seem to have found a bit of form and consistency

9. Fremantle
R18 Port Adelaide (AS) could be an intersting game but Freo should win
R19 West Coast (PS) all form is forgotten in Derbies but West Coast will be to good
R20 Adelaide ( AS) cant see them winning this
R21 Richmond (PS) on current form i would say Freo
R22 North (ES) North to good
R23 Melbourne (PS) easy win

so i think 3/6, they should be competitive against North and West Coast but and could snatch wins.

10. St Kilda
R18 Bulldogs (ES)- should win
R19 Collingwood (MCG)- Collingwood to good
R20 Melbourne (MCG)- should win
R21 Geelong (ES)- close game, i think Geelong will win
R22 GWS (ES)- easy win
R23 Carlton (ES)- another close one but Carlton to win

Answer 1

Well I can see your question, must say fair bit of time went into your theory/views so credit goes to you.

Sydney: Should win 4 out of remaining matches. Pies are tricky one, seems they cant beat them at home just like Crows cant beat Pies at AAMI. More of a mental thing rather than a team match up. If there is a time break the hoodoo its this year. Cats at Simmonds? Well depends if Sydney locks in top 2 spot they may drop this one (rest players etc). I think this match might matter more to Cats than Sydney. We shall see.



Adelaide: Should win 5 out of remaining matches. Next weekend against the Cats I could see them losing and with possible 5 game winning streak afterwards they'll more than ready to enter September action.



Hawks: Should win 4 out of remaining matches. Sydney at SCG is a tough but not impossible task. Cats is a boogey team that Hawks now lost 8 times in a row. Depending how Cats perform against Crows. If they end up on being on fire I wouldnt have any issues tipping Cats against Hawks. Again tough one to predict.



Pies: Should win 4 matches as well. Swans, I'm sort of tossing between a good opportunity to beat Pies finally. Also tough task against WCE but we know how good Pies are on the road so they could win both of them.



WCE: I'll give them win against the Cats but last 2 might be tough task and I dont think WCE would like to enter finals at the back of 2 losses in a row. Should win 4 games out of remaining 6.



Bombers: Tough task to even fight for 7th or 8th spot now since top 4 is out of question.They will win 3 possibly 4. Pies/Hawks/Crows could be guaranteed losses but every week something new and unexpected happens.



Cats: Well my Kitties had a good win so they need to back it up against Crows, if they play the way they played on Friday and win I'll tip them against Hawks following week. No issues beating Bulldogs and Saints possibly. Potential loss could be to Eagles and Sydney is 50-50 depending whom match will matter the most. Lets say 3 wins possibly 4.



North Melbourne: Should win 4 without any dramas. Could see them dropping games against Pies/Bombers. Fairly good draw to set themselves up for top 8.



Freo: Should win 3 out of 6 remaining games but need to upset either Crows/Eagles/Kangas to secure top 8 due to low percentage and I'm thinking they may miss the 8 because of this.



Saints: Should win 3 out of remaining 6 games but I'm always hesitant on tipping when they play Cats so that would be a close call. Pies is a loss and Blues game could be for top 8 spot. If they win they might finish 9th or even 8th depending on percentage.



You forgot Blues:

I still believe they are in it. 4 games to win to get into 8 (depending on percentage). I see winnable games against Lions, Tigers & GC. Big game against the Saints. The win could see them with 12 wins and competing for 8th spot. Cant see them beating Swans/Bombers but if they upset one of these teams, watch out! This only goes if they win against Tigers next week.

Answer 2

It's hard to comment much other than from my own team's perspective. I think it's interesting that everyone looks at a 'tough run home' as a bad thing and just like 2009, 2010 and 2011 are writing the Cats off.



Look at this - You think St Kilda will win three and they may win 4, but unless they beat Collingwood and Geelong, they don't move up the ladder. Likewise for Freo and North.



Geelong however play Adelaide first. If they play as well as they did against the Dons they will win - nothing to add - it's all in their hands. If they win, they'll likely move to 5th (or just off on percentage). They play Hawthorn next ... if they beat Adelaide they'll be slight favourites - if they win, they will definitely move to fifth and possibly higher. Then West Coast - tough in Paterson but if they're rolling and West Coast are still floundering, it's a real chance.



IF they win they move to fourth or even third. Then they would play St Kilda and Bulldags as unbackable favourites - but they will stay static on the table. If they win all of those they would be favourites to beat Sydney at Kardinia and quite possibly even get a top two finish. Each week will be an acid test and it's a tough job but I notice the odds on a top 4 finish came in from $67 to $15 in one week. Bookies aren't stupid with their money. Glad I put $20 down at the 67!



West Coast has a similar potential run but like Hawks they only have three teams that really matter in their little picture. Geelong play 5. West Coast will therefore struggle to climb back into the picture. Hawthorn are already in the picture and just need to hold form.



So a "tough run home" really puts it all in the hands of the team and brings those proverbial "8 point games" into play.



My thoughts are Hawthorn are peaking now - let's see if they can hold it to and into the finals.

Answer 3

On current form if one team in the 8 currently were to miss out on the finals it would be Essendon amazingly. If they're belted around by Hawthorn and Adelaide in the next fortnight they might not be able to get up for matches against 2nd tier teams like Carlton, North and Richmond. Nervous times at Windy Hill for sure

Answer 4

Thanks Matty, fantastic having it all laid out, and I think any of us should be happy having it laid out for a quick easy reference.



But Round 23....cannot be called right now....a few sides will be having a quiet one by then...it just depends on too many variables at that point in time.



Then, case in point, the Dockers...3/6 could very easily be 4-5/6.....firstly...they are in very good form just now. Then they play the Eagles (tipped to lose), but as you said it's a very close game...if they win it...they could lose to the Crows and finish with 3 wins...straight into the 8.



Also your tipping...of course it's too hard...but you have Bombers beating Blues, while Blues beat Saints in Round 23.....Saints thrashed Bombers, wouldn't they thrash, out of the 8 Blues?



But it's good you posted it...thanks.

Answer 5

If I was once a ten year historical, i would say: anybody someplace in California scored eighty one elements in a recreation of ball and hoops with the aid of Gatorade. Now that was more ah-summ than any person somewhere in California hitting the ball 756 occasions out of a playground with the aid of "further robust caffeine" referred to as stereo rides.

Answer 6

You have a bit of time on your hands to put all that together, can't see a question so I can't really give you an answer.



What you've stated here is just guess work, who knows what will happen and who will know after round 23 what you wrote.

Answer 7

alot of us do out tips every week, quandary goes one better and has a bet too, thats all guess work too romper.

Answer 8

Whatever happens, we'll know by the end of 23. Great work.